Three weeks ago, I highlighted the $86K–$87K resistance and warned that the bearish divergence on the daily chart could pull Bitcoin back toward $82K.

That pullback arrived in the days that followed.

Since then, BTC has continued to struggle below $87K while the higher timeframes remain constructive.

September closed above $82K, strengthening the monthly breakout. But weekly and two-week momentum are now cooling.

So the question is simple: does Bitcoin reclaim the range and squeeze toward $95K first, or has the deeper cooldown already started?

The bigger picture still favours the bulls.
But momentum is no longer accelerating on the lower timeframes.
I still think BTC can make one more push toward $93.5K–$95K before a broader reset, but first it needs to recover the current range.

Reclaim $82.8K and hold it → bullish continuation stays alive.
Fail to do that → the deeper cooldown likely starts sooner.

September closed around $83.6K, above the $82K region and above the descending trendline.

That confirms the monthly breakout we were watching in the previous report.

Monthly RSI remains above its moving average, while Stochastic RSI continues rising after its bullish crossover.

Both support the idea that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market.

October is now testing the reclaimed area.
That is completely normal after a breakout.

As long as BTC continues to hold this region, the monthly structure remains constructive.

A monthly close back below $82K would weaken the setup, but it would not automatically invalidate the broader recovery.

Two-week RSI remains above 50 and above its moving average.

That tells us broader momentum still favours the bulls.

But Stochastic RSI is near the top of its range and is beginning to turn down.

The current two-week candle is still open, so this signal is not confirmed yet.

Still, it signals we need to be cautious here.

The two-week chart is telling me that momentum is no longer accelerating the way it was earlier in the move.

That means another push higher is still possible.

But if we do get it, I would increasingly expect that move to be followed by a broader reset.

Bitcoin remains above its broken downtrend, but price has stalled beneath the $86K–$87K resistance area.

Weekly RSI is now testing the trendline it previously broke above.

That retest matters.

If RSI holds that breakout, it supports the idea that the higher-timeframe momentum shift remains intact.

At the same time, weekly Stochastic RSI is turning down.

That suggests the cooldown may already be starting beneath the surface.

The latest completed weekly candle still held above the $82K region.

That level remains important.

A weekly close below it would increase the risk of a move toward $78.4K.

Lose that as well, and $73K becomes the next major level to watch.

The daily chart has weakened.

BTC broke its rising trendline.

RSI lost its own rising support and is now sitting around 50, below its moving average.

That tells us short-term momentum has cooled significantly.

But there is also an early bounce signal forming.

Daily Stochastic RSI has turned higher from low levels.

That creates the possibility of one more push before the larger reset.

The first thing BTC needs to do is reclaim $82.8K and hold back inside the $82.8K–$86.7K range.

If that happens, the recent breakdown starts looking like a deviation rather than the start of a larger move lower.

From there, $87K becomes the key level again.

Break that resistance and the path toward $93.5K–$95K opens up.

If BTC fails to reclaim the range and then loses $81.3K, I would favour the deeper correction instead.

BTC moves back above $82.8K and holds the range.

From there, price attacks $87K again.

Break that level and I’m watching $93.5K–$95K next.

That would still fit the higher-timeframe bullish structure.

But with weekly and two-week momentum already elevated, I would be watching that area very closely for signs that the larger cooldown is ready to begin.

BTC fails to hold back inside the range.

A sustained loss of $81.3K, especially combined with a weekly close below the $82K region, would shift my focus toward $78.4K.

If that level fails as well, $73K becomes the next major support.

That would likely complete a much healthier momentum reset before the next higher-timeframe expansion.

Master the cycle. Ride the big waves. 🌊

— CRYPFLOW

This report is intended for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your personal circumstances.