Bitcoin has lost $82K and returned to the upper $70Ks. The deeper cooldown outlined in the previous report is now playing out.

October’s close weakened the monthly breakout, and weekly momentum continues to cool.

My long-term view remains bullish. The question is how much of this correction is still ahead of us.

The larger charts support my bullish cycle view, but the weekly correction is not clearly finished. I am watching for this pullback to develop into a higher low.

To understand why I remain constructive despite the ongoing correction, we need to start with the highest timeframe.

The two-month Stochastic RSI has crossed bullish from low levels, showing an improvement in long-term momentum. Similar crossovers appeared after previous cycle bottoms had already formed.

RSI has also recovered above 50. In every completed cycle covered by the two-month RSI, that recovery came after the cycle bottom.

Together, these signals support my view that Bitcoin has entered a new long-term cycle wave. Within that broader cycle wave, shorter-term corrections and expansion waves are a normal part of the trend.

Key takeaway: The cycle signals support my long-term bullish outlook.

For the second month in a row, Bitcoin was rejected at its 21-month simple moving average.

Support around $82.5K then failed, and price dropped toward the next monthly support near $76.2K.

Bitcoin is now testing the area built around the April and May monthly candles. Holding here would support the recovery following the summer low.

A monthly close below $76.2K would increase the risk of a move into the low $70Ks, potentially retesting the broken long-term downtrend.

Key takeaway: $76.2K is the important monthly support to defend.

The weekly chart shows the ongoing correction most clearly. After losing $82K, the latest completed weekly candle closed just below $78.4K.

Weekly RSI has slipped below its moving average and the trendline it previously reclaimed. Stochastic RSI continues falling after its bearish crossover.

This suggests the weekly cooldown may have further to go.

Recovering $78.4K would be an initial improvement. A weekly close above $82.1K would provide stronger evidence of recovery. Below current levels, the next major weekly support sits around $72.7K.

Corrections like this often create doubt just when higher-timeframe recovery structures are trying to establish themselves.

Key takeaway: Weekly momentum remains weak, and price has yet to confirm a recovery.

The three-day chart shows a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a formation that can develop as a market builds a bottom.

The left shoulder and head are visible. The right shoulder is still a projection.
A higher low near $75K or the lower support around $71.5K could fit this scenario.

RSI is moving toward its rising support line, while Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold but has not yet produced a clear bullish crossover.

I am watching for RSI to hold that support and Stochastic RSI to turn higher. In the earlier examples highlighted on the chart, this combination appeared around important lows.

Until those signals develop, further downside remains my base case.
The larger pattern would still need a completed right shoulder and a breakout above its resistance to confirm.

Key takeaway: A higher low could be developing, but it has not been confirmed.

Scenario 1 - Bitcoin stabilises and recovers

Support holds, and Bitcoin reclaims the $81.5K–$82.1K zone. Holding above it would strengthen the case for another attempt at $86.5K–$87K.

Clearing that resistance would bring $93.5K–$95K back into focus.

Scenario 2 - The cooldown continues · My base case

Bitcoin fails to recover lost support and tests $75K–$76.2K. If that area breaks, the next support zone sits around $71.5K–$73K.

That is where I am watching for a higher low to develop.

A sustained breakdown below that zone would weaken the recovery case and bring weekly support around $65.7K into focus.

Master the cycle. Ride the big waves. 🌊

— CRYPFLOW

This report is intended for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your personal circumstances.