The Wave Report #2 - Bitcoin’s biggest test is here

Bearish Divergence Reloaded? Or full on price discovery?

🔍 Current Context: BTC broke to a new all-time high on May 21, 2025. Yet the RSI still lags behind. On Dec 9, 2024, a bearish divergence emerged (higher high in price, lower high in RSI). That signal seemed invalidated… but now RSI is climbing right back into the danger zone.

Momentum is building. But the outcome isn’t confirmed yet.

🅰️ Scenario A – Bearish divergence reloaded

🔸 Price: made a new higher high
🔸 RSI: Approaching long-term downtrend
🔸 Risk: Momentum stalling again

Trigger to watch:

• RSI rejects at the trendline

• RSI prints another lower high while price makes a higher high

If confirmed:

• Expect a correction

• RSI likely drops toward 45 (macro support from 2022 cycle low)

• High probability BTC just printed its cycle top

🅱️ Scenario B – Divergence invalidated, Momentum breakout

🔸 Price: Made a new higher high and holds
🔸 RSI: Breaks above trendline and previous high

Trigger to watch:

• RSI closes above the downtrend

• RSI breaks above 79, the previous peak

If confirmed:

• Most bullish scenario

• Bearish divergence = invalidated

• Momentum fully flips bullish

• BTC enters new full price discovery mode

🎯 What to do

🔔 Set RSI alerts:

• Rejection → prepare for pullback

• Breakout → prepare for continuation

🕰️ Timeframe matters:

• This is a weekly signal → expect moves to play out over weeks to months, not days

📌 Key levels

• RSI trendline: First confirmation trigger

• RSI 79: Bullish momentum breakout level

• RSI 45: Downside first target in case of correction.

🚨 Final thoughts

We're on the edge of a macro decision point.

Whether BTC breaks into new price discovery or rolls into a deeper correction will depend on how RSI behaves in the coming weeks.

👁 Set alerts.
🧠 Stay objective.
🎯 Let the chart confirm the move, don’t front-run it.

I’ll be tracking both scenarios closely and sharing updates as this plays out.
If you're reading this, you're already ahead of the curve.

– CrypFlow

Follow the journey on X → @crypflow