The Wave Report #12 - Where does this bull run end?

Where does this bull run end?
That’s the question everyone’s asking.

To find clues, we’re turning to two of the most reliable cycle models Bitcoin has ever seen:

Fibonacci retracements and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator.

And together, they tell a fascinating story. One that could decide how you play the rest of this cycle.

Reading time: 4 minutes

Step 1: Using Fibonacci to project a cycle top

Here’s the setup:

• Take the previous cycle top

• Draw a Fibonacci retracement to the cycle bottom

That projection gives us levels that historically line up with the next cycle top.

And it’s been shockingly accurate:

• Cycle 1 (2011–2013): Top at the 2.36 FIB

• Cycle 2 (2015–2017): Top at the 2.36 FIB

• Cycle 3 (2018–2021): Top at the 1.618 FIB

See the pattern? Diminishing returns.

So what about this cycle?

If we repeat history:

• A 2.36 FIB top would put BTC around $538K, but that’s unlikely.

• The 1.618 FIB level? $176K.

• The 1.414 FIB (where BTC is closing in)? $130K.

Right now, Bitcoin is hovering just below that 1.414 level.
This is a critical moment:

• Break and hold above? $176K becomes the next big target.

• Fail? This cycle might peak closer to $130K.

And we’re already seeing confirmation: the weekly Stochastic RSI is crossing below the 80 level — momentum is slowing.

Step 2: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator says… not yet.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator - Bitcoin’s most accurate top signal ever - isn’t even close to flashing.

Historically, this indicator (which tracks the 111-day and 350-day x2 moving averages) has marked every macro Bitcoin top within days.

Each time the green MA crossed the orange MA, it marked the exact market cycle top

• 2013? Nailed it.

• 2017? Nailed it.

• 2021? Nailed it.

And today? Those lines are still miles apart.

So which is it? Are we near the top or not?

Here’s the truth: Both models can be right.

• Fibonacci projections show diminishing returns, making $130K–$176K a likely top range.

• But the Pi Cycle Indicator, which has never missed a top, says the final euphoric blow-off hasn’t even started.

In other words:
We’re in the zone where mid-cycle consolidation could turn into the final rally.

This could be the calm before the storm.

CrypFlow’s play:

Forget the fantasy numbers.
A 2.36 FIB top at $538K? Off the table.

Could Bitcoin still push toward 1.618 ($176K)? Yes, but that would likely require one last euphoric blow-off leg. And the Pi Cycle tells us that window is still open.

But here’s the part no one wants to admit:
The easy money on Bitcoin is gone.

The risk-reward has shifted. Every cycle, this is where smart money quietly rotates out of BTC and into high-upside alts while retail keeps chasing Bitcoin candles.

This is that moment.

My current stategy: I’m 80% out of BTC, scaling into large cap alt positions, and following my exit plan to the letter.

Because when this market turns, and it will, you don’t get a warning.

I’ve shown you in chart after chart: This is a pressure cooker ready to explode.
Be prepared.

Don’t just ride the wave. Lock in profits like a pro.

If you don’t have a clear exit strategy, the market will create one for you — and you won’t like it.

That’s why I created The Ultimate Take-Profit Blueprint — a simple, done-for-you system to scale out of positions without guessing or emotions.
A tool you can use this cycle — and every cycle after.

See you next week!

— CrypFlow