The Wave Report #17 - The final BTC leg?

Reading time: 4 minutes

Bitcoin is at a crossroads.
The higher timeframes are flashing warnings, while lower timeframes are still holding support.

This is the moment where cycles are decided:
👉 A final leg higher, or the start of the bear market.

Let’s break it down chart by chart.

1. Monthly chart → Decision point

The monthly chart is sitting on a knife’s edge.

• Stoch RSI just printed a bearish cross. The same signal that marked tops in past cycles.

• RSI is pressing right into its multi-year downtrend. A breakout here = final leg. A rejection = bear market.

• Price is still holding above the trendline, but one clean monthly close below it flips the structure bearish.

Bottom line: The monthly screams make-or-break.

2. 2-Week chart → History rhymes

On the 2W chart, the parallels with past cycle tops are uncanny:

• Every time the Stoch RSI crossed bearish on the 2W, Bitcoin topped.

• We just saw a bearish cross again while the RSI topped out at the downtrend.

If this leg extends, it’s the final one. If it fails, the bear market clock starts ticking.

BTC needs to act fast to turn this around.

3. Weekly chart → Support holding (for now)

The weekly gives the bulls some hope:

• Bitcoin reclaimed the bull market support band around $109K.

• Last week’s candle closed green above support invalidating the breakdown attempt.

• Stoch RSI is curling up, hinting at a potential bullish cross.

This level is key. As long as $109K holds, the door to one final leg stays open.

4. Weekly MACD → Flashing red

Here’s the catch.
The weekly MACD just fired a bearish cross.

The last two times this happened?
→ Each one lined up with local tops.

It doesn’t mean Bitcoin nukes tomorrow, but historically, this is the early warning sign before momentum flips down hard.

5. Daily chart → Bounce, but fragile

Zooming in, the daily shows a short-term recovery:

• BTC is trying to reclaim the $112.5K level after a clean breakout from the descending channel.

• RSI bounced from oversold and is trending higher into overbought territory.

• Stoch RSI has reset and fired bullish.

The structure looks solid for now, but unless BTC reclaims $112.5K+, this bounce remains just that. A bounce.

Macro wildcard → September rate cuts

Markets are now pricing in a possible Fed rate cut in September.

That’s fuel for risk assets across the board. For Bitcoin, it could be the catalyst that drives a final euphoric push higher before the cycle tops out.

But make no mistake. If it happens, it’s likely the last leg. Rate cuts mark late-cycle liquidity, not fresh beginnings.

The bottom line

Bitcoin is walking a tightrope:

• Higher timeframes (1M, 2W, weekly MACD) = bearish warning signs.

• Lower timeframes (weekly support, daily reclaim) = bulls still in control.

One thing is clear:
If Bitcoin does print a final leg, it will be the last one before the bear market begins.

And here’s the kicker, whenever BTC tops, the rotation into altcoins accelerates.
That’s the phase where ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP and eventually mid/small caps go vertical.

The playbook hasn’t changed:
1️⃣ Bitcoin peaks.
2️⃣ ETH takes the lead.
3️⃣ Large caps sprint.
4️⃣ Mid and small caps explode.

We’re not at the end yet, but the signs are building.
Stay sharp, this is the moment where fortunes are made or lost.

See you next week,

— CrypFlow