The Wave Report #18 - Altseason 2025: The Perfect Storm

Reading time: 5 minutes

Altseason isn’t random.
It’s a pattern. A cycle. A playbook the market repeats.

Every major rotation has started with the same unmistakable triggers.
And today—those signals are lining up once again.

1. BTC Dominance (3W) → Breakdown confirmed

Altseason doesn’t begin with random pumps. It begins when Bitcoin’s dominance breaks down.

I called this setup months ago. Now the rejection and breakdown have confirmed exactly as projected.

✅ Rejection at the purple downtrend line → the same trigger that preceded every altseason in past cycles.
✅ RSI breakdown → momentum has turned. A multi-year uptrend was broken, confirming weakness in dominance.
✅ BTC.D lost the 58% level → last cycle this acted as support and fueled one last rally. This time that support is already broken, making a bounce far less likely.

History shows that when Bitcoin loses dominance, altcoins take the stage.

2. ETH vs BTC (1M) → ETH takes the lead

ETH is the spark. When ETH takes the lead over BTC, the rotation into alts begins.
When that shift happens, capital flows from Bitcoin into ETH, then cascades into the rest of the alt market.

That shift has already been confirmed.

• 2019: ETH broke down vs BTC right as the RSI broke its uptrend and its moving average. That was the trigger that started ETH’s dominance and kicked off the altseason rotation.

• 2022: BTC regained control when the RSI broke back above the moving average→ alts underperformed.

• Now: History repeated once again. The RSI uptrend is broken, and at the same time, the RSI has dropped below its moving average. This double breakdown was the signal that Bitcoin is losing strength against ETH: the start of ETH dominance.

Rotation rule: BTC → ETH → Large caps → Mid caps → Small caps.
This cycle: ETH has taken the lead, and history says alts are next.

3. TOTAL3 vs BTC (1M) → Pressure cooker ready

TOTAL3/BTC has been coiled for nearly 1,000 days like a pressure cooker ready to blow.

Altseasons accelerate when the entire altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) gains strength against BTC.
That setup is here again. The same structure we saw right before the last altseason.

Here’s how it played out before:
1️⃣ 2018: TOTAL3 lost strength vs BTC → long downtrend started.
2️⃣ Fakeout: RSI MA rejection + bearish stoch RSI cross → deeper bleed.
3️⃣ Bottoming: After ~1000 days, RSI bottomed + bullish stoch RSI cross → breakout.
4️⃣ Explosion: Within 2 months, TOTAL3 ripped higher vs BTC → massive altseason ignited.

This cycle: Steps 1, 2, and 3 are already complete.
Only Step 4 is missing. If history repeats, the coming months will be explosive.

4. OTHERS/BTC (1M) → The bottom is in

Every altseason has one thing in common: it starts from a major bottom on the OTHERS/BTC chart.
That bottom has just been confirmed again.

• 2017: Price reclaimed channel support → explosive rally followed.

• 2021: Price held channel support → alts outperformed BTC.

Now in 2025, the same setup is back:

✅ RSI just broke its multi-year downtrend.
✅ Stochastic RSI cross confirmed.
✅ Price bounced perfectly at channel support.

Altseason doesn’t start at the top. It starts at the bottom. And the 2025 bottom is in.

5. Altseason range (1W) - Time for the breakdown

The safest money hides in BTC, ETH, and stables.
But when dominance in that basket breaks down, capital rotates into alts and altseason ignites.

Here’s the sequence we’ve seen before:
1️⃣ Uptrend: Dominance climbs as capital crowds into BTC, ETH, and stables.
2️⃣ Breakdown: Trendline is lost.
3️⃣ Support at ~74%: Critical level holds temporarily.
4️⃣ Retest: Quick rally back to the broken trendline.
5️⃣ Full Breakdown: Support fails → capital rotates out → altseason begins.

This exact pattern played out in 2021 right before the biggest altseason of the cycle.
Now in 2025, steps 1–4 have already repeated. Dominance rallied, broke down, bounced at 74%, and retested the trendline.

Only one step remains: the full breakdown.
If history rhymes, that’s the ignition point for altseason 2025. Don’t ignore the setup.

🚀 The Perfect Storm

Altseasons don’t happen by chance. They happen when multiple macro signals fire at once.

This time, we’re not looking at one or two hints. We’ve got five confirmed triggers flashing together:

1. BTC dominance rejected and broke down.

2. ETH has taken the lead over BTC.

3. TOTAL3/BTC broke out of its multi-year downtrend.

4. OTHERS/BTC has bottomed at channel support.

5. The Altseason Range is one step away from a full breakdown.

Individually, each of these is powerful.
Together, they form a blueprint we’ve only seen before the biggest rotations in crypto history.

Altseason 2025 isn’t a question of if.
It’s a question of how fast.

Ride the wave before it breaks.

See you next week.

— CrypFlow