The Wave Report #19 - ETH’s breakout needs fuel

Reading time: 6 minutes

Ethereum just broke into new ATH territory for the first time in over three years.
But here’s the catch: markets never move in a straight line.

The breakout came with a warning: the monthly candle closed just under the previous ATH resistance. Translation? ETH wasn’t ready to go vertical just yet. A cooldown was needed before the real fireworks begin.

Let’s zoom in from 1M → 1W → 1D → 4H and see what’s next.

1M Chart – A breakout that needs fuel

On the big picture, ETH has been battling the same ceiling since 2022. Month after month, that resistance capped every rally attempt. Finally, after the April shakeout, ETH gathered enough strength to break through. That breakout printed a new ATH, but here’s the catch: ETH couldn’t close above the resistance line.

Think of it like breaking through a wall but not quite managing to stand firmly on the other side. The August candle was the breakout attempt. The September candle is now showing us ETH probably needs to retest around $3,700 to turn that old resistance into solid new support.

This isn’t a failure. In fact, it’s often how strong breakouts are built.

The indicators support this view too:

• The RSI just broke out of a 4-year downtrend. That’s rare, and historically one of the strongest bullish signals a chart can give. Now it’s coming back to retest that breakout, and if the RSI holds, it confirms the strength of the move.

• The Stochastic RSI has been pointing upward since April. Momentum has been in ETH’s favor ever since that bottom.

Bottom line: on the monthly, ETH looks strong. It just needs this retest to build the foundation for the next leg higher.

📅 1W Chart – The cool off

Zooming into the weekly, ETH is showing us exactly why this area is so tricky. The old ATH resistance zone rejected ETH again, and at the same time the weekly Stochastic RSI crossed down. Every time we saw that same signal in past years, it marked a local top.

But here’s the nuance: while momentum cooled off short term, the weekly RSI tells a different story. ETH broke out of its downtrend on the RSI earlier this year, and now it’s coming back for a retest. As long as RSI holds above 50, the long-term bullish case remains intact.

The deciding factor will be the $3,500–$3,900 range. If ETH holds that zone as support, the breakout remains valid and ETH can prepare for continuation higher.

📊 1D Chart – Bounce playbook

If the monthly is the big wave and the weekly is the battlefield, the daily chart is where we see ETH’s short-term rhythm.

Since April, ETH has followed a clean pattern with the Bollinger Bands (BB). Each time ETH touched the bottom of the Bollinger Band, it marked a local bottom. Each time, the stochastic RSI crossed bullish right after, and a rally followed.

Right now? ETH is testing the bottom of the Bollinger Band again. The stochastic RSI is already in oversold territory, meaning it’s “recharging.” Once we get that bullish cross, the pattern suggests ETH is ready for another leg higher.

In simple terms: ETH has bounced from this spot all year, and it could be about to do it again.

⏳ 4H Chart – Repeating patterns

Finally, the 4-hour chart zooms us into ETH’s day-to-day playbook. Since April, ETH has been moving inside a rising parallel channel. Within that channel, ETH has repeated the exact same 4-step script in each consolidation phase:

1. Price builds a range, moving sideways.

2. It fakes a breakout above, trapping longs.

3. It dips below the range (a shakeout) where the RSI goes oversold.

4. Then it expands higher, blasting into new highs.

We’re right now in step 3: the shakeout. Price just dipped below the box, and RSI is oversold once again. If the script repeats the next move is expansion higher, potentially the breakout that takes ETH into price discovery.

🚀 The bigger picture

So where does this leave us?

ETH has proven its strength with a breakout after years of resistance. Short-term, a cooldown or retest is not a sign of weakness. It’s the kind of fuel ETH needs to sustain a real move higher.

The monthly RSI breakout + Stoch RSI momentum makes this one of the cleanest setups ETH has printed in years.

But there’s more: ETH doesn’t just move alone. Every altseason in history has started with ETH leading the charge. Once ETH confirms its breakout and pushes into true price discovery, capital doesn’t stay parked in ETH. It rotates: first into large caps, then into mid caps, and finally into small caps and memes.

ETH is the spark. Altseason is the fire. The wave is forming. Ride it, don’t fight it.

— CrypFlow