The Wave Report #21 - The setup that defines the rest of the cycle

Reading time: 5 minutes

1. The same pattern on repeat

Since the 2022 cycle bottom, Bitcoin has followed one consistent rhythm:

1️⃣ Bullish stochastic RSI cross
2️⃣ RSI break of downtrend → momentum ignites
3️⃣ Expansion phase → price rallies to new cycle highs

Once a local top is reached, the pattern flips:
🔻 Bearish stochastic RSI cross
🔻 RSI forms a new downtrend
🔻 Price consolidates sideways

Then the process resets, each time building the foundation for the next macro leg higher.

In each of these phases, RSI always retraced back toward the 45 level before breaking out again. Except once.

That exception was February 2024, when after a short sideways consolidation (orange), Bitcoin broke its RSI downtrend much faster without falling back toward 45, as the stochastic RSI confirmed a bullish cross at the same time.

That exact setup has just triggered again.

This suggests momentum could once again accelerate faster than usual, but not everything is perfectly aligned beneath the surface.

Because while the structure looks strong, RSI and price have been diverging for months and that divergence has now stretched further than ever before.

2. Bearish Divergence

While price keeps printing higher highs, RSI keeps printing lower highs: continued bearish divergence.

What makes this setup unique is that Bitcoin has never printed three consecutive bearish divergences in a row and now it’s on track for a fourth.
That makes this structure historically rare and much harder to predict.

But based on where we are in the macro cycle, this will likely mark the final leg before the cycle top.

From here, there are only two possible paths, both defined by how RSI reacts to its current downtrend.

🅰 Scenario A: RSI breakout:
RSI breaks the red downtrend → confirming continuation.
That would trigger the start of Bitcoin’s final expansion phase: the vertical push where disbelief turns into euphoria.

The current bullish stochastic RSI looks almost identical to February 2024, when Bitcoin also didn’t retrace back to the 45 RSI level before breaking its downtrend and launching into a major rally.
If history rhymes, a similar breakout could unfold here potentially driving BTC toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (~$176K), which also marked the 2021 cycle top.

🅱 Scenario B: RSI rejection:
But if the RSI gets rejected once again, we could see a reversal back toward the 45 zone.
And this time, based on where we are in the broader cycle, that 45 level might not hold potentially signaling the start of a new bear market and the transition into the next cycle.

In that case, BTC could find its top closer to the 1.414 Fibonacci extension (~$130K).
A level that would align with diminishing returns.

3. Key Takeaway

Bitcoin has never shown this many consecutive divergences before.
We are witnessing something completely new.

A confirmed RSI breakout could trigger the final, vertical phase of the bull market.
A rejection could start the bear market and reset the cycle.

Either way, this is the turning point.
And it’s closer than most think.

4. What’s next

Timing exits will soon matter more than timing entries.
That’s why I’ll soon release the Exit Mastery Blueprint taking the previous Altcoin Profit Blueprint to the next level.

This isn’t just an upgrade.
It’s a complete evolution of the original guide.

It now includes my personal take-profit system for both Altcoins and Bitcoin, more videos, a dashboard to track your portfolio and a checklist so you’ll know exactly when the tide has turned and when it’s time to fully exit the market.

This isn’t a one-time playbook.
It’s a framework you’ll use for the rest of your trading life.

If you already own the first edition, the full version will be delivered to you completely free. My way of saying thank you for being here since the early days.

For everyone else, this will be your chance to get your hands on what could be the most important guide before this bull run tops out.

— CrypFlow