The Wave Report #22 - Bitcoin at the Apex

Reading time: 3 minutes

Bitcoin’s next move will define the entire 2025 narrative. Continuation or collapse into a bear market.

1. Recap

In the last Wave Report, I outlined a rhythm that defined every phase of this bull market:

1️⃣ Bullish stochastic RSI cross
2️⃣ RSI break of downtrend → momentum ignites
3️⃣ Expansion phase → price rallies to new cycle highs

Each time, this sequence carried Bitcoin higher until RSI formed a new downtrend and price consolidated. That rhythm has been almost flawless since the 2022 cycle bottom.

But this time, something changed.

After that report, Bitcoin confirmed another rally and printed a new all-time high, reaching just below the 1.414 Fibonacci extension (~$130K) where Scenario B from the last edition projected resistance.

And that’s where things turned.

2. Timing the top (1M Chart)

Historically, every Bitcoin bull market topped 35 months after the cycle bottom.
That window is now wide open again right on schedule.

But this time, there’s something new on the chart:
Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has formed a triangle that’s now reached its apex.

The RSI is coiling between two long-term trendlines. One descending from the 2021 peak and one rising from the 2022 bottom.

This is a make-or-break moment:

• A break above the downtrend would confirm continuation → the final euphoric wave.

• A rejection and falling below the apex would confirm the top → signaling macro exhaustion and the start of the next cycle reset.

✅ Still bullish: RSI holding above 65–68, monthly structure intact.
⚠️ Risk: the 35-month cycle duration aligns perfectly with this RSI apex.

Key takeaway:
Bitcoin has never reached a monthly RSI decision point this tight.
The breakout or rejection from this apex will decide whether the bull run extends or ends.

3. Cycle life support (1W Chart)

The weekly chart shows Bitcoin’s life support: the 50-week SMA.

Every correction since the 2022 bottom bounced from this level and we’re testing it again.

• Price sits right above the 50 SMA

• RSI shows hidden bullish divergence (higher lows in price, lower lows on RSI)

• Stochastic RSI is deeply reset

If BTC holds above the 50 SMA and RSI bounces from 45, the higher-low structure stays intact setting up a possible last leg higher.
Lose it, and the cycle likely topped at the 1.414 FIB.

The final push could be ignited with a bullish stochastic RSI cross.

4. Last chance for uptober (1D Chart)

Momentum is trying to recover:

• RSI reclaimed the 45–50 zone

• Stochastic RSI flashed another bullish cross

• MACD looking for a bullish cross

If BTC can close above $112K and reclaim $117K–$120K, short-term confluence aligns with weekly structure for a final rally attempt.

5. Final thoughts

Bitcoin made its move just as projected, but stopped right where diminishing-returns theory pointed. The 1.414 FIB rejection, RSI downtrend, and 35-month timing all line up.

We’re at the same stage where prior cycles began to fade, yet there’s still one wildcard: the 50-week SMA.
If it holds, Bitcoin still has fuel for one last rally.
If not, we may have already seen the top, but it would be strange to mark a cycle top without peak euphoria…

The next two weeks will decide.

— CrypFlow