The Wave Report #24 - BTC at a decision point

Reading time: 4 minutes

Bitcoin is sitting in an interesting spot right now. Momentum on higher timeframes is trying to turn back up, while weekly structure is still being repaired and the daily chart is approaching resistance.

In this update I’ll walk through what the charts are actually showing across the 2W, 1W, and 1D timeframes and where the market is at from a structural and momentum perspective.

No predictions. No hype. Just context.

BTC 2-Week - Macro decision point

In January 2023, BTC reclaimed the 45 RSI level, marking the start of this bull market.

Since then, the most powerful moves of the cycle have followed bullish Stochastic RSI crosses on the 2W chart. A signal that appears roughly once per year and precedes explosive upside expansions.

After the October ATH, momentum cooled. RSI slipped out of its rising structure and retraced back toward the 45 support zone, the lowest reading since this bull market began.

We’ve seen this setup before.

After the 2021 cycle top, a bullish Stoch cross also appeared on the 2W chart while the RSI held support on the 45 level.
In early 2022, many believed a new rally toward fresh highs had begun. That cross produced a ~40% relief rally, but ultimately failed and turned into a classic fakeout.

Now the same structure is back:

• RSI holding 45 support after a potential cycle top
• Stochastic RSI crossing bullish

Two paths lie ahead:

Fakeout: short-term relief rally only = a repeat of 2022.
Confirmation: sustained momentum expansion = the ignition of the next major impulse leg.

45 RSI keeps the bull structure alive.
The Stoch cross decides whether this is continuation… or deception.

BTC 1-Week - relief rally vs reclaim

After the 2021 cycle top, BTC lost the 50-week SMA and the 45 RSI level. A shift that marked the start of the bear market.

Fast forward to this cycle.

BTC reclaimed the 50-week SMA in early 2023 and every major consolidation since then used this moving average as dynamic support before the next impulse leg higher.

Since the October ATH, that structure has changed.
Price rolled over and for the first time this cycle BTC lost both the 50-week SMA and the 45 RSI level.

This closely resembles what we saw after the 2021 peak, right before the bear market accelerated lower.

Back then, BTC staged a relief rally back into the 50 SMA only to get rejected, confirming the structural shift. That same level (50 SMA) now sits at ~102K.

A reclaim of that SMA would be a major signal of trend continuation.
Failure keeps the bear market thesis alive.

BTC 1-Day - Compression against resistance

On the 1D chart, BTC is moving within a bear flag structure, while price is approaching the downtrend line drawn from the cycle top.

So far, momentum remains constructive:

• RSI has broken out and successfully retested its trendline
• Stochastic RSI remains elevated, still supporting short-term continuation

However, structure tells a more cautious story.

A bear flag resolving below major downtrend resistance keeps both outcomes on the table. Continuation higher or a short term rejection first possibly towards S2..

This is the first real decision zone of the local trend.

Break & acceptance above the downtrend = continuation toward R2

Rejection from this area = flag failure and renewed downside pressure

Momentum looks good, but structure still needs confirmation before leaning bullish.

Putting it together:

Momentum on higher timeframes is trying to turn back up, but the weekly structure still hasn’t fully repaired.
The daily chart is now sitting right into resistance where the next move will decide whether continuation or rejection plays out first.

In other words: this is a wait-and-confirm zone, not a chase zone.

See you soon,

- CrypFlow