The Wave Report #25 - The most dangerous phase of the cycle

A lot of people on X are still calling for new all-time highs.
And technically speaking, it’s not impossible.

But markets don’t move on conviction, they move on probability.

When you step back to the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin is starting to display several of the same structural signals that appeared near the 2021 cycle top.
Not all of them. Not yet. But enough to shift from confidence to caution.

So instead of asking “Can we still go higher?”, the more useful question is:
How likely is it and what needs to happen next?

Let’s compare then vs. now.

1. Five signals that started the 2021-2022 bear market

In the previous cycle, the bear market didn’t begin with a single crash.
It began when five monthly signals aligned.

Here’s what confirmed the transition:

1. RSI bearish divergence
Price made higher highs, momentum didn’t. A classic exhaustion signal.

2. Bearish MACD cross
Monthly momentum flipped decisively from expansion to contraction.

3. Long-term trendline break
The multi-year ascending trendline was lost.

4. Failed rally (lower high)
The first bounce after the ATH failed to reclaim momentum.

5. Market structure loss
Key higher lows and macro supports (~$40–50K) were broken.

➡️ Once all five aligned, Bitcoin entered a >75% drawdown, bottoming near $16K.

2. Status since the Oct 2025 ATH (~$126K)

Now let’s look at the current cycle, objectively.

Triggered so far:

✅ 1. RSI Bearish Divergence Price made a higher high, RSI didn’t.
✅ 2. Bearish MACD Cross Monthly momentum has flipped lower.
✅ 3. Trendline Break The ascending trendline from the 2022 bottom has been broken.

Not triggered (yet):

⏳ 4. Failed rally (Lower High) No confirmed lower high on the monthly.
⏳ 5. Market structure (previous higher low) around $83K still intact.

Status: 3 of 5 signals triggered. 2 still missing.

3. What the charts are setting up

This is no longer about opinions.
It’s about structure.

On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin is at the same stage where previous cycles decided whether a correction stayed a correction, or turned into a bear market.

What the charts show:

• Momentum (RSI & MACD) has already rolled over

• Long-term trend support has been broken

• Price is still holding key structure. For now..

Most likely path:

A relief rally comes first.
That rally fails to make a new ATH and forms a lower high.
Likely somewhere below the prior highs, potentially between $100K-$105K.
This is exactly how previous cycle tops transitioned into bear markets.

What confirms real weakness:
A monthly close below $82K and failing to reclaim it.
That’s when the downtrend becomes structural.

What would invalidate this:
A fast reclaim of resistance that resets momentum.
Right now, the charts don’t support that scenario.

Bottom line:
A bounce doesn’t mean the bull is back.
Historically, the most dangerous move is the one after the bounce, when confidence briefly returns and everyone starts screaming “$200K is next”.

See you soon,

- CrypFlow