The Wave Report #5 - Altseason is brewing: 5 triggers you can’t ignore

Reading time: 4 minutes

If you’re waiting for altseason to kick off… it might be closer than you think.

Altcoin rallies don’t start randomly, they follow macro signals.

In this week’s report, I’ll walk you through the 5 charts I always watch to know when capital is rotating from Bitcoin into alts. These are the same triggers that fired in 2017 and 2021… and right now, they’re showing life again.

Trigger 1: BTC Dominance falling: Rejection = alt rally

If you’re waiting for altseason to kick off, BTC.D is the first chart you need to watch.

Right now, BTC Dominance is testing a critical multi-cycle resistance zone. This zone has rejected dominance in:

• 2017 (top before altseason)

• 2019 (local peak before altcoin rotation)

• 2020 (top before altseason)

This cycle BTC.D is pressing right into that same historic wall again.

Two scenarios are in play:

Scenario 1: Rejection at purple trendline
BTC.D gets rejected at the purple downtrend and rolls over → altcoin momentum kicks in
Target: 40–44% BTC.D → historically aligned with strong alt rallies

Scenario 2: Final push to orange horizontal line
BTC.D pushes higher toward the orange zone (~71.5%)
→ Final BTC push before true rotation into alts
→ Then, a steep fall = explosive altseason

Trigger 2: BTC/ETH RSI Breakdown: ETH prepares to lead

If Bitcoin leads the market higher… who leads the altseason?

Historically, it’s ETH that flips the script.

We’re now seeing a key momentum shift on the 1-month chart:

📉 Monthly RSI just broke below its MA, a very rare reversal trigger
🔻 It marked the start of ETH outperforming BTC in the previous cycle
🧭 When ETH leads → alts explode shortly after

This is a macro signal, not an intraday trade. But it tells us: the rotation is beginning.

This isn’t an intraday setup, it’s a cycle-level rotation signal.

Watch for:

• Further downside on BTC/ETH

• ETH strength relative to BTC = risk appetite rising

• Rotation into ETH-based projects → then broader alt rally

Trigger 3: USDT Dominance breakdown: Capital is rotating

When money leaves stablecoins… it has to go somewhere.

That’s why USDT.D is such a powerful indicator. Every breakdown of its trendline has triggered an altcoin rally. No exception.

• ✅ 3 trendline breakdowns this cycle

• ✅ All confirmed by a MACD bearish cross

• ✅ The latest breakdown + MACD cross just happened

This is not just technical noise. It’s a shift in capital behavior.

Money is leaving safety. Altcoins are waking up.

Trigger 4: TOTAL3 Breakout: rotation starts

Want to know when the entire altcoin space is about to explode?

Look at TOTAL3: the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH. It’s the clearest macro signal of when capital flows into the rest of the market.

What we’re seeing:

• Clean rising channel since the cycle bottom

• Each breakout from a local downtrend → massive altcoin pumps

• We’re on the verge of breaking another trendline!

This chart gives you the altcoin macro pulse. When TOTAL3 climbs, the whole market moves, not just a few coins.

What to look for:

• Continuation above the red trendline

• Push into upper channel = acceleration zone

• Rotation: BTC → ETH → large caps → mid caps → small caps

TOTAL3 breakout = altseason in full effect.

Trigger 5: Others/BTC reversal: Same structure, new cycle

The final piece of the puzzle?

📊 The Others/BTC chart showing the performance of all altcoins excluding top 10.

Every major altseason started the same way:

• ✅ Altcoins hit long-term trendline support

• ✅ Structure held

• ✅ Explosion followed

We saw this in:

• 2017 → massive rally from trendline to cycle top

• 2021 → same structure, same result

• 2025 → we’re back at the same trendline again… and holding

If this pattern continues, this chart is your launchpad. Altcoins are coiled. Momentum is shifting. And structurally, the setup is nearly identical to past cycles.

This is not the time to be distracted by noise. The market is whispering. Are you listening?

🎯 Final Take

Altseason isn’t magic.
It’s triggered by macro shifts in dominance, momentum, and capital flow.

Right now, we’re seeing early signals across the board:

• BTC dominance is stalling

• ETH is gaining strength

• Stablecoin dominance is breaking down

• TOTAL3 is pushing up

• Altcoins are holding key long-term support

We’re not in full altseason yet, but the dominoes are lining up. 👀
And as always, ride the wave, don’t chase it.

See you next week,

— CrypFlow