The Wave Report #6 - Don't fear the cross

Reading time: 4 minutes

Everyone is staring at the same thing…

The weekly stochastic RSI just made a bearish cross and panic is quietly creeping in.

But here’s the thing:
Not every bearish cross at this stage is the end of the cycle.
And not every signal is what it seems.

In today’s Wave Report, we break down what’s really happening:

1. Why the current cross isn’t confirmed yet

2. What if this cross gets invalidated

3. What it could mean for this cycle if confirmed

4. How previous cycles handled bearish SRSI crosses at similar stages

Let’s separate fear from facts.
You’ll walk away with clarity, not confusion.

1. This cross is not confirmed yet

Yes, the weekly stochastic RSI shows a bearish cross…
But no, it’s not confirmed.

Here’s what most people miss:
For this cross to confirm, both lines need to close below the 80 level.
That hasn’t happened yet.

• The fast line (blue) crossed below the slow line (orange) signalling a bearish cross

• But the slow line is still above 80 (blue zone)

• That means this is a warning, not a confirmation

A lot can still happen before the weekly candle closes.
We could see a full invalidation or the start of something more meaningful.
Until then: don’t jump to conclusions.

2. What if this cross gets invalidated?

Let’s play out the bullish scenario:
The blue line reclaims 80 and pushes back up.
The bearish cross? Fully invalidated.

What does that mean?

We’ve seen this before and often, it leads to a bullish continuation, especially when the price holds above a key level.

🧠 In this case:

• ~$101,000 is acting as a pivot

• A reclaim above the $104.4K S/R flip would strengthen the bullish case

• SRSI bouncing from the 80 level would show renewed momentum

This wouldn’t be the first time a bearish SRSI signal turned out to be a fakeout.
In strong trends, that happens more than people think.

Patience is key. Let the market show its hand.

3. What if the bearish cross gets confirmed?

Let’s take a closer look at this cycle.

Since the cycle bottom in 2022, BTC has respected one key structure over and over again:
🟣 The 50-week SMA acting as dynamic support.

Each time we touched the 50 SMA:

• The Stochastic RSI printed a bullish cross

• The RSI broke out of a local downtrend

• BTC rallied for several weeks until a new bearish cross formed

• After which the RSI found support again at the 45 level.

This structure repeated again and again.

Except early February 2024 was different:

• BTC didn’t revisit the RSI 45 zone after the bearish cross

• Price moved sideways

• The stochastic RSI reset without major price damage

Now we ask:
Is this the same playbook repeating: a shallow reset, sideways price, then launch?
Or are we in for a deeper retest, back to RSI 45, or even a tag of the 50 SMA again?

Both are possible.
But if history’s any guide:
What happens around the 50 SMA will be crucial.

4. What history tells us when a bearish stochastic RSI cross happens at this stage of the cycle

In both the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the weekly stochastic RSI made a bearish cross a few months before the actual cycle top. At first glance, it looked like the top was in. But in both cases, price recovered strongly, and the real cycle top followed after a final push.

That final push wasn’t random.

If you take the halving date and add roughly 500 days, you land almost exactly on the moment the stochastic RSI crossed bullish again, pushing price into its final euphoric rally.
We saw this pattern play out twice already and right now, it's setting up again if the bearish cross confirms.

Let’s apply the same timing to the current cycle:
→ April 2024 halving + 500 days = September 2025

So even if the current bearish cross confirms on the weekly stochastic RSI, history tells us:
That’s not the end. It’s the setup.

A bearish stochastic cross in the final phase of the bull market may look scary in the short term…
But it's often just the reset before the final leg up.

The clock is ticking.
And time is on Bitcoin’s side.

See you next week,

— CrypFlow