The Wave Report #9 - Will Bitcoin escape the divergence trap?

Reading time: 4 minutes

Bitcoin just made a new weekly higher high. But under the surface, something doesn’t add up.

📉 The RSI is diverging
📉 And the chart just reached a critical inflection point

What happens next could define the rest of this cycle.

⚠️ Tension builds: A critical RSI test in progress

Bitcoin’s price continues to make higher highs.
But the RSI is not following (yet).
Instead, it’s pressing up against the RSI downtrend that’s been in play since the 2024 high.

🟡 No lower high (yet)
🟡 No rejection (yet)
🟡 But we’re right at the edge and next week could seal the deal

Why does it matter?

Because this exact RSI setup has flashed red at every major cycle top:

• 2017: blow-off top

• 2019–2020: local tops before major reversals

• 2021: cycle peak

Now, once again, RSI is testing that same structure.
Break it and the cycle continues.
Reject and it might be over.

Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads.

🔴 Scenario A: Rejection → Top confirmed

If BTC gets rejected at the RSI trendline, the bearish divergence is confirmed and the cycle may have peaked.

That would imply:

• Exhaustion at the top

• Momentum shift back to ETH and midcaps

• Capital rotation: Bitcoin cools, altcoins heat up

The chart below shows what this scenario looks like and how it could open the door for altseason.

🟢 Scenario B: RSI breakout → divergence invalidated

A breakout through the RSI trendline would invalidate the divergence and unlock a fresh wave of upside just like we saw in early 2020.

In this scenario:

• Momentum continues

• Bitcoin pushes toward the final leg of the cycle

• Altcoins might lag short term, but rotation is coming

📊 Cheat Sheet: What really matters this week

🟣 Bonus Insight: Will altcoins follow if BTC breaks out?

Yes, but with a delay.

Historically, when Bitcoin breaks out with force, altcoins tend to lag behind at first.
Capital flows into BTC → BTC.D rises → alts underperform temporarily.
But once Bitcoin cools down or consolidates on higher ground, the money starts to rotate fast.

Don’t confuse lag with weakness
🚀 A BTC breakout often sets the stage for an explosive altcoin run, just slightly later

🧠 Final Take

Bitcoin is either:
📈 Breaking out and extending the cycle
🔄 Or topping out and triggering altseason

Either way:
The moment of truth is here
Smart traders are preparing, not predicting

Stay sharp.
This is where cycles shift.

🌊 CrypFlow is here to help you ride the waves.
Whatever direction they may go.

See you next week,

— CrypFlow